R.I. economic status improves in July, but question of being in a recession remains, says URI economist
Sept. 15, 2025
WHAT: Rhode Island’s economic performance for July saw some improvement, however the Current Conditions Index once again failed to move into its expansion range, according to University of Rhode Island economist Len Lardaro. July’s CCI value matched April’s outcome of 50, returning to its neutral value after a two-month slide. Lardaro says that while not all 50s are the same, Rhode Island’s economic performance in July was fairly strong and a bit encouraging. With the noted improvements, Lardaro says the question of whether Rhode Island’s economy remains unsolved linked to all the tariff-related uncertainties.
For July, six of the 12 economic indicators improved, and the ones that did show upticks displayed very positive momentum, Lardaro says, with some indicators rebounding after they had declined for several months. Retail Sales, a critical economic indicator that has been a strength through almost the entire post-pandemic period, rose by 5%. Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, also rose in July by 1.1% — its fourth annual improvement after a long string of declines. Total Manufacturing Hours increased by 4% in July, which Lardaro considers very strong as both employment and the work week expanded. Benefits Exhaustion, which indicates long-term unemployment, fell in July by 6.5%. New Claims for unemployment insurance, which reflects layoffs, declined by 18.6% for its first improvement this year. Lardaro also says that if positive trends in both Employment Service Jobs and New Claims emerge, they would have a very positive implications for future employment growth.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.
WHEN: Sept. 15, 2025
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563; James Bessette, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-829-0286, james.bessette@uri.edu.
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