R.I. officially in recession as economic indicators became ‘painfully weak’ in August, says URI economist
Oct. 14, 2025
WHAT: Rhode Island’s economic performance for August plummeted and the state is now in a recession, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. August’s CCI value, at 33, matched the marks set in June and February. It is the fifth time in eight months during 2025 that the value has been below 50, with all eight values being below what they were a year ago. Lardaro says Rhode Island’s recession likely began in December 2024 and that national growth will clearly be slowing this year. Depending on how the tariff war plays out, he says the outlook could be even more negative than it has been up to this point.
For August, just four of the 12 economic indicators improved relative to a year ago. While there were three relatively strong indicator performances, Lardaro says most others were painfully weak. Retail Sales, a critical economic indicator that has been a strength through almost the entire post-pandemic period, rose by 4.5%. Total Manufacturing Hours grew at 2.6%, which Lardaro considers very strong as both employment and the workweek expanded. Manufacturing Wage also increased by 1.7%, but Lardaro calls its recent performance “choppy.”
Benefits Exhaustion, which indicates long-term unemployment, rose in August by 30.7%. New Claims for unemployment insurance, which reflects layoffs, increased by 8.8%. Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, was flat in August. Single-Use Permits, related to new home construction, dropped by 9.1%. The state’s Labor Force also fell by 0.4%, Lardaro says, and US Consumer Sentiment declined by 14.6%.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.
WHEN: Oct. 14, 2025
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563; James Bessette, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-829-0286, james.bessette@uri.edu.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.
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