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R.I. economy in a ‘growth recession’ as February CCI value falls into the contraction range, says URI economist   

WHAT: The Current Conditions Index value for February fell into the contraction range of 42. Only five of the 12 CCI indicators improved for the month, and Retail Sales, a key indicator that had remained solid since the pandemic, fell for the first time since May 2023. While the decline in Retail Sales is worrisome, […]
ngillespie | Tue, Apr 15, 2025

WHAT: The Current Conditions Index value for February fell into the contraction range of 42. Only five of the 12 CCI indicators improved for the month, and Retail Sales, a key indicator that had remained solid since the pandemic, fell for the first time since May 2023. While the decline in Retail Sales is worrisome, it is only an indicator value for a single time period, said University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. But he added: “At this present time, I believe that Rhode Island has entered a Growth Recession. … Obviously, this is not where we want our state’s economy to be heading into a period of national weakness exacerbated by a tariff war, but that’s where we find ourselves.”

February’s results follow slowing of the state’s economy at the end of last year, evidenced by CCI values declining from June through December. Confirming this decline further, growth data declined from 3.6% in the third quarter to 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The index remained in the neutral value of 50 and a few indicators were performing reasonably well at the start of the year but February was an extremely weak month, said Lardaro. The uptrend in the state’s Labor Force (+0.3%), remains, although threatened by monthly deterioration, but the Unemployment Rate rose further in February to 4.7%, the third monthly increase. The state’s manufacturing center has also weakened with Total Manufacturing Hours declining for the third consecutive month, New Claims for unemployment insurance rising monthly for the ninth time since last February, and Benefit Exhaustions rising sharply this month (+5.6%) for the 11th increase in the last 12 months.

HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.

WHEN: April 15, 2025

FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563. Tony LaRoche, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4894.

BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.

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