November CCI value stays steady, but R.I. momentum appears to be fading, says URI economist
Jan. 15, 2025
WHAT: November’s Current Condition Index value of 67 remained unchanged from the previous month, but there are increasing signs that Rhode Island’s economic momentum is slowing, says University of Rhode Island economist Len Lardaro. In 2024, the CCI has shown significant improvements in key indicators on a year-to-year basis. Based on that view, the CCI remains in the expansion range (beyond 50). But a trend of deteriorating monthly values emerged at the end of summer for a number of indicators. The worry is that if these monthly declines continue, they will translate into yearly declines. And from a monthly view, the index has remained in the contraction range for every month since July, he says.
For November, the CCI value remained at 67 – well below an index value of 83 in June – and saw eight of the 12 CCI indicators improve relative to a year ago, among them four of its five leading indicators. Most notable continues to be the sustained yearly uptrend in Labor Force, which rose by 2.2% — although it fell on a monthly basis. Total Manufacturing Hours rose by 4.6% compared to a year ago but employment in durable and non-durable goods has remained largely unchanged over the last three months. On the positive side, Retail Sales, a key indicator of the state’s economic health, rose by 4.8% in the month. As the state’s economy appears to be losing steam, Lardaro notes, the state faces large budget deficits, which promise to further slow economic momentum.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.
WHEN: Jan. 15, 2025
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563. Tony LaRoche, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4894.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.
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