Tariff-induced uncertainties cloud R.I. economy’s recession status, says URI economist
Aug. 15, 2025
WHAT: Rhode Island’s economic performance for June continued the year’s trend of the Current Conditions Index slipping into or remaining in contraction territory. June’s CCI value matched May’s outcome of 42 as the index remained below year-earlier values each month this year. While some indicators improved in June, those improvements were tepid at best as the state’s economy continues to slow, said University of Rhode Island economist Len Lardaro. Lardaro said he can’t rule out that the state is in a recession, but the full picture is blurred by the uncertainty caused by trade tariffs, which have frozen the state’s economic activity.
For June, a majority of the leading economic indicators in the CCI failed to improve but there were some small victories. Retail Sales, a critical economic indicator that has been a strength through almost the entire post-pandemic period, rose by 2%. Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, also rose in June by 2.1%, its third annual improvement after a long string of declines. Strong positive outcomes were lacking after those two. Total Manufacturing Hours and Manufacturing Wage, key sectors to weigh the state’s tariff impacts, rose by weak amounts, while New Claims for unemployment insurance, which reflects layoffs, rose by 14.1% and Benefits Exhaustion, which indicates long-term unemployment, surged by 27.1%.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.
WHEN: Aug. 15, 2025
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563. Tony LaRoche, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4894.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.
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