URI economist: Rhode Island economy contracts in May, state on precipice of recession
WHAT: While state economic data for April showed a temporary reprieve, the Current Conditions Index slipped back into contraction territory in May with a value of 42. According to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro, the CCI has remained in a neutral or contraction value every month since December and continue to lag their corresponding values from the previous year—illustrating that Rhode Island’s economic momentum continues to fade relative to 2024.
Although several CCI economic indicators showed improvement in May, Lardaro notes the rate of improvement is not particularly strong making it difficult to rule out the possibility that Rhode Island is in the early stages of a recession.
Despite this, Retail Sales, Employment Service Jobs and Total Manufacturing Hours each showed better than 2% improvement. However, Manufacturing Wage and Rhode Island’s Labor Force Participation showed declines while the state’s Participation-Adjusted Unemployment Rate, New Claims for unemployment insurance and Benefits Exhaustion all rose. Whether or not Rhode Island is in the early stages of a recession, Lardaro says the data suggests we are clearly on the precipice of one.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.
WHEN: July 22, 2025
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563.
Dawn Bergantino, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4147.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.
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