Apr 4, 2025: Physical Oceanography Seminar: Dr. Hannah Zanowski at Narragansett Bay Campus
Title: The varied future of upper Arctic Ocean properties as sea ice declines Speaker: Dr. Hannah Zanowski, Assistant Professor at University of Wisconsin-Madison Abstract: The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest warming regions of the global ocean. Climate models consistently project this warming to continue under climate change unless stringent mitigation strategies are put into place. However, as a new, potentially ice-free Arctic continues to emerge, what is less clear is how changes in natural variations in the climate system, known as internal variability, will impact future trends and predictability of upper ocean properties in this region. Here we use the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) to analyze internal variability in Arctic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and mixed layer depth (MLD) from 1850-2100. We find that annual and seasonal mean internal variability (demonstrated via the ensemble spread) in Arctic Ocean SSTs increases dramatically after ~2040 as sea ice cover declines, likely due to a combination of increased wind stress on the ocean surface and increased turbulent heat fluxes via a reduction in the damping effect of sea ice. A similar increase in SSS internal variability is not found, while MLD internal variability tends to decrease as the mixed layer shoals, particularly in winter and spring, due to increasing freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. View on site | Email this event