Signs point to slowing R.I. economy, but some strength remains, says URI economist
WHAT: Rhode Island’s economy started the fourth quarter on a cautious note, as the Current Conditions Index for October decreased to 67, after recording a 75 in each of the previous two months. A large portion of recent economic momentum remains based on yearly comparison of the CCI indicators, but there are signs of weakening when looking at the indicators on a month-to-month basis, said University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. The growth the state experienced in the second quarter has ended, he added, and it appears the state may be transitioning to a more sustainable level of economic momentum.
For October, the state’s economy was a mixed bag. Eight of the 12 CCI indicators improved in October compared to a year ago. Most notable is the state’s Labor Force, which rose by 2.5 percent. But on a monthly basis it has declined for the last three months. Also, Total Manufacturing Hours rose 5.6 percent over October 2023. But that increase was only for non-durable goods, while the cyclically sensitive durable goods sector saw no change in employment and declined in hours worked and hourly wage. Meanwhile, Retail Sales, a key indicator of the state’s economic health, rose 2.7 percent in October. And Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, is a bright spot with yearly growth at about 5 percent for the last two months. The flip side to that, however, is potential layoffs, in terms of New Claims, which failed to improve in October. Lardaro said his overall assessment of the state’s economy remains upbeat, but several areas and trends need to be monitored over the coming months.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.
WHEN: Dec. 18, 2024
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563. Tony LaRoche, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4894.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.
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