After ‘god awful’ March, R.I. economy facing early stages of ‘full-blown’ recession, warns URI economist
May 12, 2025
WHAT: After falling into contraction range with a Current Conditions Index value of 42 in February, the Rhode Island economy sunk further to a value of 16 in March. Data for the month—which URI economist Leonard Lardaro called “god awful”—were the worst he’s seen since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. March’s poor showing continued weakness from the fourth quarter of last year, and Lardaro said that he would be “amazed if Rhode Island is not currently in the early stages of a full-blown recession.” While it is possible March’s data were a fluke, he stressed the data come from before the tariff war, and it is unlikely the state will get a boost from national economic activity.
If the state is in a recession, it does not mean levels of key indicators have fallen dramatically, only that current levels are continuing to fall relative to their values a year ago or month ago. For March, none of the five leading economic indicators in the CCI improved. Of the 12 indicators, only two increased compared to a year ago, Retail Sales and Private Service Providing Employment. Retail Sales, a key indicator which has consistently been a “star performer” since the pandemic, increased by only 0.2 percent in March. Private Service Providing Employment, up 0.6% relative to a year ago, continued its sub-1% growth rate since last June. Among the 10 indicators that declined in March, Labor Force fell relative to a year ago, as did the participation and employment rates. And the state’s manufacturing sector continued to weaken.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.
WHEN: May 12, 2025
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563. Tony LaRoche, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4894.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.
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